low-probability, high-impact outcomes
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There's an interesting Earth System Dynamics Discussion paper presenting a a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WG1 to the assessment and communication of climate change risks. Essentially, one can estimate the risk of some outcome by considering the likelihood of that outcome multiplied by the impact of that outcome. This is illustrated…
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Dr Valérie Masson-Delmotte @valmasdel.bsky.social on X: Low-likelihood, high-impact outcomes could occur at global and regional scales even for global warming within the very likely range for a given greenhouse emissions scenario. The
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